Mozambique among the few African countries that could gain from the Middle East crisis

The war in the Middle East could further hold back African economic growth — but, amid the turbulence, Mozambique emerges as one of the few countries that could benefit from the crisis. Even so, the gain may come with structural risks and economic pressures that threaten the whole continent.

A report released on Thursday by two United Nations agencies, together with the African Union and the African Development Bank, warns that African economies could lose up to 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2026 if the conflict lasts more than six months.

The document, presented at the meeting of the United Nations Economic Commission held in Tangier, describes a scenario in which a prolonged war would disrupt trade routes, energy supply and the availability of fertilisers — factors capable of triggering a significant economic slowdown in Africa.

“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and to the supply of energy and fertilisers, the greater the risk of a significant slowdown in growth on the continent,” the report states.

Although the direct impact on inflation has not been quantified, the document warns that the crisis could quickly turn into a new cost-of-living crisis in Africa, driven by rising fuel and food prices. Some African countries, the report stresses, could be more affected by fertiliser shortages than by higher oil prices.

The interruption of liquefied natural gas supplies from the Gulf could compromise the production of ammonia and urea, raising fertiliser costs and reducing supply during the crucial planting period between March and May — a factor with the potential to put further pressure on food security.

The Middle East currently accounts for 15.8% of African imports and 10.9% of the continent's exports, showing the degree of trade and energy dependence.

However, not all African countries would come out worse off. The report points out that some energy-producing states could benefit from higher international prices. Among them, Mozambique stands out as an exporter of liquefied natural gas, alongside Nigeria, an oil producer.

In addition, the country is already beginning to feel another direct effect of the crisis: increased traffic at the Port of Maputo. With shipping routes being diverted, the Mozambican port emerges as a logistics alternative, together with Durban in South Africa, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and the port infrastructure of Mauritius.

This logistical repositioning could strengthen Mozambique's strategic role in regional trade, especially if instability in the Middle East persists.

The report also highlights other emerging dynamics on the continent. In East Africa, Kenya is beginning to establish itself as a logistics hub through the Port of Lamu and Nairobi, while Ethiopia benefits from its role as an emergency air bridge between Asia, Africa and Europe, through Ethiopian Airlines.

At the same time, analysts warn of a possible increase in geopolitical competition in Africa should the conflict in the Middle East widen. The United States, Gulf countries, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey could intensify the contest for influence on the continent.

This escalation could also make humanitarian operations more expensive, particularly in vulnerable regions such as Sudan and the Horn of Africa.

In a context in which African growth remains fragile and debt levels remain high, the report recommends that governments strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation, coordinate fuel purchasing, set up emergency food corridors and adopt targeted social protection measures. It also recommends that energy-producing countries, such as Mozambique, save any windfall revenues.

Claver Gatete, executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and co-author of the report, said it is still too early to quantify precisely the impact of the war on inflation and African growth.

Despite the uncertainty, one conclusion emerges clearly: while much of Africa faces growing economic risks, Mozambique may find, amid the global crisis, a strategic opportunity — provided it can turn temporary gains into lasting structural advantages.